In short, we don’t, according to the Deepwater Horizon report:
“Scientific understanding of environmental conditions in sensitive environments in deep Gulf waters, along the region’s coastal habitats, …… is inadequate. The same is true of the human and natural impacts of oil spills.”
The same is the case for the coastal waters of the Moray Firth and indeed the impact of a spill on humans and the natural environment. Every oil spill throws up something new – the impact of Exxon Valdez is still being monitored 28 years later – some species have taken a decade or even decades to recover, some are yet to recover. Why gamble with our natural environment for the sake of only £500,000 a year for the coffers of the CFPA? Have a look at this graphic from the Exxon Valdez (reproduced from NOAA https://response.restoration.noaa.gov/oil-and-chemical-spills/significant-incidents/exxon-valdez-oil-spill/timeline-ecological-recovery-infographic.html) – it says all:
